Stocks head into Thursday’s session after a Wednesday rally that reset the tone of a mixed week — the S&P 500 rose 0.38% to 7,572.40, the Nasdaq climbed 0.62% to 26,269.23, and the Dow tacked on 0.29% to 52,658.64. The move followed back-to-back inflation surprises: June CPI eased to 3.5% YoY with core at 2.6%, then PPI unexpectedly fell 0.3% on the month, sending the 10-year yield down to 4.57% and reviving the AI-and-cyclicals trade. Bank earnings from JPMorgan, Goldman, BofA, Citi and Wells Fargo cleared a combined $49B Tuesday on a boom in trading and dealmaking, but the tape stayed narrow — Technology and Communication Services lead week-to-date while Healthcare and Consumer Staples slumped Wednesday (−1.9% and −1.4%). Focus now shifts to June retail sales, weekly jobless claims and TSMC’s Q2 print before the open, with Netflix after the close, as the VIX cools to 15.67 and traders reprice how hawkish the Warsh Fed really needs to be into the July 28–29 FOMC.
DOW JONES
52,658.64
▼ 0.75%
Big Bank Q2 Earnings (JPM, GS, C, BAC, WFC)
EARNINGS The unofficial start of Q2 season delivered a combined $49B in profit, up 39% YoY, on record trading revenue and a dealmaking rebound. Set the bar high for capital-markets names and steadied Financials into the CPI print.
June CPI · June PPI
ECONOMIC DATA Headline CPI cooled to 3.5% YoY (core 2.6%) and PPI unexpectedly fell 0.3% on plunging energy prices. The tandem miss took the 10-year yield down ~6bps and lit the fuse under Wednesday’s tech-led rebound.
June Retail Sales · Weekly Jobless Claims
ECONOMIC DATA Street looks for +0.3% headline retail sales after May’s 0.9% pop and claims near 216k. A soft consumer read piled onto June’s 57k payrolls print would harden the growth-scare narrative and pressure the Warsh Fed to hold the line.
TSMC (TSM) Q2 Earnings
EARNINGS The AI trade’s single most important tell. Preliminary June revenue was up 68% YoY and Q2 sales came in at USD 40.2B, the top of guidance. Watch capex and N2 commentary — options are pricing a ~$150B market-cap swing.
Netflix (NFLX) Q2 Earnings
EARNINGS After the close. Consensus looks for $0.79 EPS on $12.6B in revenue (+13.5% YoY). Ad-tier ARPU and password-sharing monetization set the tone for mega-cap Communication Services into the FOMC blackout.
FOMC Rate Decision (Jul 28–29)
FED Warsh’s second meeting. Consensus is a hold at 3.50–3.75%, but this week’s soft CPI/PPI reads pushed the front end lower — the market will watch every syllable on whether the median dot’s 3.8% hike is still live.
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Sector Pulse — Past Week