Markets returned from the long Independence Day weekend on a tech-led high, with the Dow closing above 53,000 for the first time ever at 53,055.91 (+0.29%) while the S&P 500 climbed 0.72% to 7,537.43 and the Nasdaq surged 1.12% to 26,121.16. Monday’s rally was driven by a snap-back in the AI trade — Alphabet, Apple, Meta, and Tesla all rallied as chip sentiment recovered from late-June’s slump. Under the hood Communication Services, Technology, and Consumer Discretionary lead the tape, while Energy lags with WTI slipping below $69 on Strait of Hormuz reopening and OPEC+ supply signals. Traders now pivot to Wednesday’s FOMC minutes from the Warsh Fed’s hawkish June pause and the unofficial kickoff of Q2 earnings with PepsiCo, Delta, and Levi Strauss, with the 10-year yield at 4.47% and the VIX cooling to 15.81.
DOW JONES
53,055.91
▲ 0.29%
NFIB Small Business Optimism · Consumer Credit
ECONOMIC DATA A read on how Main Street is absorbing 4.2% CPI and a still-restrictive Fed. A soft optimism print combined with slowing credit growth would revive the growth-scare narrative and cap the tech-led rebound.
FOMC Minutes (June meeting)
FED First look inside the Warsh Fed’s hawkish June pause and the shift in the median dot to 3.8%. Any color on how deeply divided the committee is between a 2026 hike and hold will reprice the front end and dictate whether duration-sensitive tech can extend.
Levi Strauss (LEVI) Q2 Earnings
EARNINGS First real consumer discretionary tell of Q2. Wall Street looks for $0.24 EPS on $1.52B; a beat on direct-to-consumer margin momentum extends the Monday rotation into cyclicals, while a soft print flags tariff and tourism headwinds.
PepsiCo (PEP) Q2 Earnings
EARNINGS The unofficial start of Q2 earnings season. Consensus $2.19 EPS. Focus is on North American beverage volumes, Frito-Lay pricing power, and any hint about the GLP-1 drag on snack demand as the staples group looks for a floor after last week’s underperformance.
Initial Jobless Claims · Delta (DAL) Earnings
ECONOMIC DATA Weekly labor pulse-check after last week’s payrolls print and airline capacity read-across from Delta’s guidance. Prior guide was ~$1B pre-tax; a downgrade cracks the summer travel story and hits industrials.
June CPI
ECONOMIC DATA Next test after May’s 4.2% YoY headline and 2.9% core reads. With the Warsh Fed openly leaning hawkish, a hotter-than-expected print would put a live hike back on the table and knock the tape off its record highs.
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Sector Pulse — Past Week