A brutal week for big tech ended Thursday with the S&P 500 at 7,357.49 (-0.01%) and the Nasdaq at 25,358.60 (-0.46%), capping a 1.9% WTD slide for the S&P and a 4.4% drubbing for the Nasdaq as Apple sank 6.1% after MacBook and iPad price hikes pinned on a memory cost spike. The Dow held up at 51,920.62 (+0.7% WTD) as defensive rotation into healthcare, utilities, and industrials offset the megacap pain — Tuesday’s 2.2% chip rout still defines the tape. May PCE landed at 4.1% headline / 3.4% core, the hottest since 2023 and confirmation of the Warsh Fed’s dot-plot pivot toward a 2026 hike. Energy was the week’s other casualty — the post-Iran-deal unwind dragged WTI down ~12% to $70.73, with the sector deep red. The 10-year yield slipped to 4.38% on growth jitters even as the VIX climbed to 18.89, and traders now pivot to a truncated week capped by Thursday’s payrolls print and the July 3 Independence Day close.
DOW JONES
51,920.62
▲ 0.69%
Conference Board Consumer Confidence
ECONOMIC DATA The first sentiment read after a hot May PCE print and a hawkish Warsh-led Fed. A soft confidence number would feed the growth-scare narrative driving this week’s defensive rotation; a resilient print extends the no-landing trade and pressures the duration rally.
Constellation Brands Q1 Earnings
EARNINGS The cleanest beer-and-spirits demand check after a quarter of premiumization concerns and tariff noise on imports. Guidance on Mexican beer volumes will set the tone for the staples complex that’s been a relative haven this week.
ISM Manufacturing PMI
ECONOMIC DATA The first hard read on factory activity after the Iran-deal oil collapse and a still-elevated 10-year. With industrials propping up the Dow this week, a sub-50 print would crack the rotation story; a clean expansionary read keeps cyclicals bid.
ADP Employment & JOLTS
ECONOMIC DATA The Fed-relevant labor pair landing 24 hours before the early payrolls release. After May’s 172K beat, another firm ADP plus sticky openings would harden the new dot plot’s hike bias and keep 2026 cut hopes off the board.
June Nonfarm Payrolls (early release)
ECONOMIC DATA Released Thursday because of the Friday holiday, this is the marquee print of the truncated week. Consensus is around 110K; a hot number on top of 4.1% PCE would lock in the hike-or-hold dot plot, while a sub-50K miss would resurrect cut bets and reverse the tech derate.
Independence Day — Markets Closed
ECONOMIC DATA US equity and bond markets are shut for the Independence Day observance. Positioning into Thursday’s post-payrolls close will be magnified by the long weekend and the absence of a Friday liquidity outlet.
🏢
Sector Pulse — Past Week