Wall Street staged a sharp midweek turnaround after a rough start to the week. Stocks slid for a third straight session through Tuesday as the 10-year Treasury yield hit a one-year high and the 30-year briefly topped 5.19% — its highest in nearly 19 years, with sticky 3.8% April inflation keeping Fed rate cuts off the table. The mood flipped Wednesday when WTI crude tumbled more than 5% toward $99 on signs the U.S. and Iran are nearing a deal to reopen the Strait of Hormuz, easing inflation fears and pulling the 10-year yield back to 4.57%. The Dow climbed 1.3% to retake 50,000 and the Nasdaq jumped over 1%, leaving the major indexes roughly flat on the week as cyclicals led and Energy gave back its early-week oil gains. After the close, NVIDIA blew past estimates with $81.6B in revenue and guidance well above consensus, plus an $80B buyback and a dividend hike, sending futures higher into Thursday. Attention now turns to Walmart's results for a final read on the squeezed consumer and to month-end PCE inflation for the Fed's next signal.
Walmart Earnings
EARNINGS The week's marquee consumer read closes out a heavy slate of retail earnings. After Home Depot, Target, and Lowe's, investors want to know whether shoppers are trading down as sticky 3.8% inflation and tariffs squeeze household budgets and retail margins.
S&P Global Flash PMIs (May)
ECONOMIC DATA An early look at May activity across manufacturing and services. With inflation hot, the prices-paid components matter as much as the headline — a stagflationary mix of slowing growth and rising prices would rattle the rebound.
Initial Jobless Claims
ECONOMIC DATA A weekly pulse on the labor market. With the Fed boxed in by reaccelerating inflation, any sign of cracks in employment would sharpen the dilemma between fighting prices and supporting growth.
PCE Inflation (April)
ECONOMIC DATA The Fed's preferred inflation gauge. After CPI held at 3.8% and the April meeting drew four dissents, a hot core PCE reading would all but cement a 'no cuts in 2026' stance and keep upward pressure on yields.
May Jobs Report
ECONOMIC DATA The first big labor read for June. A still-tight job market would give the hawks cover to hold, while a sharp slowdown would reopen the rate-cut debate the April dissents exposed.
FOMC Rate Decision
FED The next Fed decision and updated dot plot. With the April vote split 8–4 and inflation stuck at 3.8%, markets will parse whether the committee still pencils in any 2026 cuts at all.
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Sector Pulse — Past Week