A powerful two-day tech-led rebound has flipped last week’s script, with the S&P 500 vaulting to 7,449.36 (+1.30% WTD), the Nasdaq surging 3.62% WTD to 26,213.72, and the Dow crossing 52,000 for the first time to close at 52,319.20 (+0.85% WTD). Monday’s rally was ignited by the Supreme Court affirming Fed independence in the Lisa Cook decision and a US–Iran de-escalation agreement, while Tuesday’s follow-through was juiced by Alphabet’s 5% pop on its debut as a Dow component. That capped the best quarter for major indices since 2020. Under the hood the tape has flipped hard toward risk-on — Technology, Communication Services, and Consumer Discretionary lead while last week’s defensive winners (Utilities, Staples, Healthcare) and Energy lag with WTI stuck near $70. Traders now pivot to a truncated week centered on ISM Manufacturing and ADP this morning and Thursday’s early June payrolls print, with the 10-year yield at 4.44% and the VIX cooling to 16.45 ahead of the July 3 Independence Day close.
DOW JONES
52,319.20
▲ 0.85%
Q2 Close · Consumer Confidence
ECONOMIC DATA Quarter-end pinned an outsized rally — the best Q2 for the S&P 500 since 2020 — and the Conference Board’s sentiment read helped confirm the growth-scare narrative from the prior week is easing, greenlighting the rotation back into risk.
ISM Manufacturing PMI
ECONOMIC DATA The first hard read on factory activity after the Iran-deal oil collapse and a still-elevated 10-year. A clean expansionary print keeps cyclicals bid; a sub-50 miss cracks the rotation story and drags industrials with it.
ADP Employment & JOLTS
ECONOMIC DATA The Fed-relevant labor pair landing 24 hours before the early payrolls release. Another firm ADP plus sticky openings would harden the new dot plot’s hike bias and keep 2026 cut hopes off the board.
June Nonfarm Payrolls (early release)
ECONOMIC DATA Pulled forward to Thursday because of the Friday holiday, this is the marquee print of the truncated week. Consensus is ~110K; a hot number on top of 4.2% CPI locks in the hike-or-hold dot plot, while a sub-50K miss would resurrect cut bets and juice the tech-led rebound.
Independence Day — Markets Closed
ECONOMIC DATA US equity and bond markets are shut for the Independence Day observance. Positioning into Thursday’s post-payrolls close will be magnified by the long weekend and the absence of a Friday liquidity outlet.
FOMC Minutes (June meeting)
FED First look inside the Warsh Fed’s hawkish dot-plot pivot. Any color on how deeply divided the committee is between a 2026 hike and hold will reprice the front end and dictate whether the rebound in duration-sensitive tech can hold.
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Sector Pulse — Past Week