Stocks ripped higher to kick off the holiday-shortened week as the surprise US–Iran peace deal reopened the Strait of Hormuz and torched the war premium, sending the Nasdaq up 3.07% to 26,683.94, the S&P 500 up 1.65% to 7,554.29, and the Dow up 0.92% to 51,671.03. Technology led the tape as the chip and AI complex roared back from last week’s drubbing, while airlines and cruise lines jumped on the reopening of Mideast shipping lanes. Crude paid the price — WTI plunged 4.8% to $80.75 — dragging energy to the back of the pack and pulling the 10-year yield down to 4.47%. Communication Services lagged after Fox cratered 17% on its $22B bid for Roku, while the VIX collapsed to 16.20 as event risk unwound. With Tuesday’s Retail Sales, Wednesday’s FOMC decision and Chair Warsh’s first SEP, and FedEx and Lennar earnings on deck before Friday’s Juneteenth close, the risk-on tape still has to clear a 4.2% CPI print and a market pricing zero cuts in 2026.
DOW JONES
51,671.03
▲ 0.92%
May Retail Sales
ECONOMIC DATA The first read on consumer demand after May’s 4.2% CPI shock. Consensus looks for a 0.3% monthly gain, but a hot control-group print 24 hours before the Fed would cement Warsh’s hawkish hand and shove the 2026 dot plot further from cuts.
FOMC Rate Decision & SEP
FED Chair Warsh’s first meeting in the chair and the new Summary of Economic Projections. Futures pin a hold at 99%, so the battleground is the dot plot — after a 4.2% CPI and the Iran-deal oil unwind, the question is whether the median 2026 dot crosses from cuts to hikes.
Lennar Q2 Earnings
EARNINGS The cleanest housing read of the cycle, landing alongside the Fed and the next morning’s Housing Starts. With mortgage rates north of 7% and the 10-year still above 4.4%, guidance on incentives and new-order pace will set the tone for the homebuilder complex.
Housing Starts & Jobless Claims
ECONOMIC DATA Starts and Permits the morning after Lennar test whether the rate-sensitive consumer is buckling, while the weekly claims print is the freshest labor read since the May payrolls beat. Back-to-back soft housing data would be the first crack in the no-landing narrative.
FedEx Q4 Earnings
EARNINGS The bellwether on global freight demand and the DRIVE cost-out program. Street looks for $5.92 EPS on $22.2B revenue — commentary on Express margins and FY27 guidance will reset the industrial transports trade after the Iran-deal pop.
Juneteenth — Markets Closed
ECONOMIC DATA US equity and bond markets are shut for Juneteenth, compressing the post-Fed reaction into a three-day trading week. Positioning into Thursday’s close will be magnified by the long weekend and the absence of a Friday liquidity outlet.
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Sector Pulse — Past Week