Stocks gave back most of Monday’s chip-led bounce after President Trump telegraphed renewed kinetic strikes on Iranian air defenses and a tepid Siri AI reveal at WWDC torched Apple. The S&P 500 slipped 0.26% to 7,386.65 and the Nasdaq dropped 0.97% to 25,678.82, while the Dow squeezed out a 0.17% gain to 50,872.11 as rotation into banks and healthcare absorbed the tech and energy selling. Apple closed down 3.64% at $290.55, dragging the iShares Semiconductor ETF roughly 1% lower and unwinding part of Monday’s 6% chip rebound. Crude shed the Iran premium — WTI fell to $87.73 — even as the VIX climbed back near 20 and the 10-year yield steadied at 4.54% on a quiet flight-to-quality bid. With May CPI hitting at 8:30 a.m., Oracle after the close, Adobe Thursday, and the $1.77T SpaceX IPO landing Friday, the next 72 hours decide whether the AI trade rebuilds or unravels.
DOW JONES
50,872.11
▲ 0.01%
May CPI
ECONOMIC DATA The week’s headline release and the single biggest input into the June 17 dot plot. With April at 3.8% headline and consensus pointing to 4.2% on sticky energy, a hot print on top of Friday’s payrolls shock would fully price out 2026 cuts and put hikes squarely back on the table.
Oracle Q4 Earnings
EARNINGS The first conversion test for the $553B RPO backlog and the cleanest AI-capex read-through after the chip rout. Street looks for $1.96 EPS on $19.1B revenue — anything soft on OCI growth or cloud bookings validates the bearish case on hyperscaler spend.
May PPI
ECONOMIC DATA The pipeline-inflation read the morning after CPI, paired with weekly jobless claims. Energy and core goods are the focus — back-to-back hot prints would cement the hawkish pivot and bid the dollar.
Adobe Q2 Earnings
EARNINGS Software’s turn to defend AI monetization after Claude Design gutted the sector multiple. Consensus is $5.81 EPS on $6.45B revenue — but with growth multiples already taken to the woodshed, the bar on Digital Media ARR and Firefly traction is unforgiving.
SpaceX IPO (SPCX)
EARNINGS The largest IPO in history prices at $135 for a $1.77T valuation, with 555.6M shares raising $75B. A successful debut absorbs a wall of capital and signals risk appetite is intact; a fizzle craters the IPO pipeline behind it.
FOMC Rate Decision
FED Chair Warsh’s second meeting and the next SEP. Futures still pin a hold near 99%, but the dot plot is the battleground — after the May payrolls beat, the question is whether the median 2026 dot crosses from cuts to hikes.
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Sector Pulse — Past Week