Stocks are grinding through a two-track week as an oil-and-geopolitics tape collides with a Big Tech earnings gauntlet. The S&P 500 edged up 0.14% Wednesday to 7,498.96 but is -0.46% week-to-date after Monday’s Iran-driven slide, while the Nasdaq slipped 0.57% to 25,690.90 yet still holds a +0.67% WTD gain on the back of Tuesday’s chip surge, and the Dow finished essentially flat at 52,218.58 (+0.14% WTD). An 11th consecutive night of U.S.–Iran strikes pushed WTI up ~2% near $83 and lifted the 10-year yield to 4.63%, funneling flows into Energy, Utilities and Real Estate while dragging Consumer Discretionary and Communication Services. After the bell, Alphabet raised full-year capex by $10B to about $85B yet jumped ~3% after-hours on AI-fueled ad growth, Tesla missed on the bottom line ($0.33 vs $0.50) with the biggest revenue drop in a decade, and IBM squeaked past estimates but guided down. Focus now turns to weekly jobless claims, existing home sales and flash PMIs today, Intel after Thursday’s close, and the July 28–29 FOMC, where a hold at 3.50–3.75% is expected but Warsh’s tone into a hotter energy backdrop is what actually matters.
DOW JONES
52,218.58
▲ 0.14%
Iran Strike Escalation · Oil Spike
GEOPOLITICS A ninth consecutive night of U.S. strikes on Iran and fresh Strait of Hormuz threats sent Brent to a six-week high and knocked Apple down more than 2%, pulling the Dow off 307 points and setting the risk-off tone for the week.
Chip Rebound · Verizon, GM, Coca-Cola Q2
EARNINGS Semis snapped back on cooler-than-feared read-throughs and lifted the Nasdaq 1.3% while the S&P added 0.9%. Verizon, GM and Coke cleared low bars but flagged tariff and consumer softness underneath the beats.
Alphabet · Tesla · IBM Q2 Earnings
EARNINGS The AI-capex debate came due after the close. Alphabet beat on ad revenue but hiked FY26 capex by $10B to $85B, Tesla’s revenue fell 12% YoY on a $0.33 EPS miss, and IBM eked out a beat while trimming its full-year sales outlook.
Jobless Claims · Existing Home Sales · Flash PMIs
ECONOMIC DATA Street looks for claims near 222k and existing home sales around 4.0M SAAR, with S&P Global flash manufacturing and services PMIs testing whether the June payrolls chill has bled into activity ahead of next week’s Fed.
Intel (INTC) Q2 Earnings
EARNINGS After the close on Thursday. With the Philly Semi Index still down 20%+ from June, Intel’s foundry commentary, 18A yields and PC/DC mix are the single cleanest read on whether the AI-hardware trade’s pullback has legs or is done.
FOMC Rate Decision (Jul 28–29)
FED Warsh’s second meeting. Consensus is a hold at 3.50–3.75%, but sticky 3.5% CPI, a hotter energy backdrop and a 4.2% jobless rate leave the July dot in question — the market will parse every syllable on whether the median 3.8% path is still live.
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Sector Pulse — Past Week