Stocks staged a chip-led rebound to open the week, with Monday’s session clawing back a slice of Friday’s payrolls-driven rout. The S&P 500 rose 0.30% to 7,405.73 and the Nasdaq jumped 0.86% to 25,929.66, powered by a violent reversal in semis — Marvell surged 10% on S&P 500 inclusion news, while Intel popped 11% on a Google TPU order and Micron rebounded 10% after Friday’s 13% plunge. The Dow slipped 0.16% to 50,786.01 as Apple fell ~2% after a tepid Siri/Apple Intelligence unveil at WWDC. Iran’s announced halt of strikes on Israel calmed risk appetite, sending the VIX down nearly 12% to 18.92, even as WTI crude jumped 4% to ~$93.60 on lingering Strait of Hormuz risk. With May CPI Wednesday, Oracle that afternoon, Adobe Thursday, and the $1.77T SpaceX IPO landing Friday, this is the gauntlet that decides whether the AI trade has stabilized or just bounced.
DOW JONES
50,786.01
▼ 0.16%
May CPI
ECONOMIC DATA The week’s headline release and the single biggest input into the June 17 dot plot. With April at 3.8% headline and consensus pointing toward 4.2% on energy, a hot print on top of Friday’s jobs shock would fully price out 2026 cuts and put hikes squarely back on the table.
Oracle Q4 Earnings
EARNINGS The first major AI-capex check after Friday’s chip rout. Street looks for $1.96 EPS, up 15% YoY, but the read-through is cloud bookings and OCI growth — anything soft validates the bearish case on AI infrastructure spend.
May PPI
ECONOMIC DATA The pipeline-inflation read the morning after CPI, paired with weekly jobless claims. Energy and core goods are the focus — back-to-back hot prints would cement the hawkish pivot and bid the dollar.
Adobe Q2 Earnings
EARNINGS Software’s turn to defend AI monetization. Consensus is $5.83 EPS on $6.46B revenue (+15% / +10% YoY) — but with growth multiples just taken to the woodshed, the bar on Digital Media ARR and Firefly traction is unforgiving.
SpaceX IPO (SPCX)
EARNINGS The largest IPO in history prices at $135 for a $1.77T valuation, with 555.6M shares raising $75B. A successful debut would absorb a wall of capital and signal risk appetite is intact; a fizzle would crater the IPO pipeline behind it.
FOMC Rate Decision
FED Chair Warsh’s second meeting and the next SEP. Futures pin a hold at 99%, but the dot plot is where the fight is — after Friday’s payrolls, the question is whether the median 2026 dot moves from cuts to hikes.
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Sector Pulse — Past Week