U.S. stocks reopened after Memorial Day with a bang: the S&P 500 and Nasdaq both notched fresh record closes Tuesday, the S&P up 0.6% to 7,519 and the Nasdaq up 1.2% to 26,656, while the Dow slipped 0.2% as the rally concentrated in growth. The standout was Micron, which soared roughly 19% to top a $1 trillion market cap and dragged the entire semiconductor complex higher. Fueling the move, President Trump said U.S.–Iran ceasefire talks were ‘proceeding nicely,’ a de-escalation that collapsed WTI crude toward $93 and stoked hopes that cooling energy prices could ease inflation and give the Fed room to cut later this year. The softer oil and risk-on tone broadened the advance, with the Russell 2000 jumping about 1%, even as energy stocks lagged badly alongside the crude slide. Under the surface the backdrop stays cautious — inflation is still sticky at 3.8% and the Fed has held at 3.50–3.75% for a third straight meeting. Attention now turns to a data-heavy stretch: Q1 GDP's second estimate Thursday, the Fed's preferred PCE inflation gauge Friday, and AI-tinged earnings from Salesforce, Marvell and Dell.
Consumer Confidence (May)
ECONOMIC DATA The first read of the holiday-shortened week and a pulse check on the consumer. With inflation stuck at 3.8% but oil suddenly collapsing on Iran de-escalation, investors want to know whether households are still spending heading into summer.
Salesforce Earnings
EARNINGS A bellwether for enterprise software and AI monetization. After Micron's blowout helped lift chips to records, the Street wants proof that AI spending is translating into real revenue for application makers, not just the hardware names.
Q1 GDP (2nd Estimate)
ECONOMIC DATA A revised look at first-quarter growth. A firm print would reinforce the 'higher for longer' camp at the Fed and keep upward pressure on yields, while a soft revision would bolster the case for the rate cuts traders are betting cheaper oil could unlock.
PCE Inflation (April)
ECONOMIC DATA The Fed's preferred inflation gauge and the week's marquee release. After CPI reaccelerated to 3.8%, a cooler core PCE — helped by sliding energy prices — would revive rate-cut hopes, while a hot reading would keep the Fed pinned at 3.50–3.75%.
May Jobs Report
ECONOMIC DATA The first big labor read for June. A still-firm job market would give the Fed cover to keep holding, while a sharp slowdown would strengthen the case for cuts later this year.
FOMC Rate Decision
FED The next Fed decision and updated dot plot. With inflation near 3.8% but oil tumbling, markets will parse whether the committee leans toward cuts, a long hold, or stays on guard against an energy-driven inflation rebound.
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Sector Pulse — Past Week